After a rocky first season following a historic contract, the Oakland Athletics find themselves at a crossroads with Luis Severino. Did they make a mistake signing him to such a lucrative deal, or can he still turn things around? The answer isn't as simple as you might think.
Last winter, the Athletics made a splash by signing Luis Severino to a three-year, $67 million free-agent contract, instantly making him the highest-paid player in franchise history. But the initial return on that investment was, to put it mildly, underwhelming. Severino struggled through the first half of the season, posting a worrying 5.16 ERA across 20 starts.
But here's where it gets controversial... His struggles on the mound weren't the only source of concern. Severino found himself at the center of a media storm in late June after publicly criticizing pitching conditions at Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, the A's temporary home. These comments, reported by Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, reportedly didn’t sit well with the Athletics' management. Imagine spending millions on a player, only for him to publicly complain about the team's facilities!
Following the comments and first-half performance, speculation arose that the team would try to trade Severino before the trade deadline. However, his hefty contract and uneven performance made executing such a move a significant challenge. Teams weren't exactly lining up to take on a struggling, highly-paid pitcher. And this is the part most people miss... Severino actually showed signs of improvement after the All-Star break, potentially changing the A's perspective. Over his final nine appearances, he recorded a much-improved 3.10 ERA, striking out a solid 21.8% of the batters he faced and holding them to a .226/.289/.333 batting line. This resurgence, aside from a three-week stint on the injured list due to an oblique strain, was more in line with what the A's envisioned when they initially signed him.
According to Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Athletics are now less inclined to simply dump Severino's salary. While they aren't completely ruling out a trade, they are reportedly seeking a legitimate return in addition to any team taking on his contract. In other words, they want valuable players or prospects in exchange for Severino, not just someone to take him off their hands. Severino is still owed a $5 million signing bonus, payable next January 15th. This is important to note because this bonus would remain the A's responsibility even if they traded him this month. He's also due a $20 million salary next year and has a $22 million player option for the 2027 season. So, any team acquiring him would be looking at a potential commitment of two years and $42 million, with the possibility that Severino could opt out after the first season if he performs well. It should also be mentioned that Severino previously rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, meaning the A's wouldn't be able to offer him another one if he becomes a free agent again.
On paper, the contract isn’t a complete disaster, but it doesn't offer much upside either. Severino's overall season stats paint the picture of a slightly below-average pitcher. He finished with a 4.54 ERA and a below-average 17.6% strikeout rate across 162 2/3 innings. There’s been a lot of talk about his home/road splits, specifically the nearly three-run difference in his ERA (6.01 at home vs. 3.02 on the road). However, his road ERA might be a bit misleading. His strikeout rate on the road was only 17%, and he benefited from an unsustainably low .249 average on balls in play. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which isolates a pitcher's performance from defensive factors, tells a different story. There's a much smaller gap in his home/road FIP (4.34 vs. 3.87), suggesting his overall performance was more consistent than his ERA indicates.
The ideal scenario for the A's? Severino bounces back and pitches like a solid #3 starter next season, then opts out of his contract, allowing them to free up payroll. He'd only exercise the player option if his performance declines, making him less attractive to other teams. But here's the rub: teams aren't exactly clamoring to acquire Severino. Interested clubs are only willing to absorb his contract if they don't have to give up significant talent in return. This doesn't benefit the A's much, especially if they aren't solely motivated by the stadium criticism. With Severino and Jeffrey Springs being their only returning starters who pitched over 100 innings last season, and a rotation that collectively posted the fourth-highest ERA in MLB (4.85), starting pitching remains a critical need. Rookies Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales showed promise, but the hitter-friendly environment of their temporary home in Sacramento places an even greater strain on young pitchers. This could make it difficult to attract free-agent starters, much like last offseason.
Looking ahead, Severino, Springs, Brent Rooker, and Lawrence Butler are the only players with guaranteed contracts. The A's also have one of the smallest arbitration classes in MLB. According to RosterResource, their projected luxury tax number is around $105 million, the stated goal last winter to avoid revenue-sharing issues. Their actual payroll is estimated at around $75 million, similar to their opening day payroll in 2025. In addition to addressing their rotation, they're also looking to add a high-leverage reliever and potentially bolster their infield at second and/or third base. So, what do you think? Should the A's hold onto Severino and hope he rebounds, or should they try to trade him, even if it means getting less in return? Do you think his criticism of the stadium will factor into their decision? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
